2 months ago

First semester project for Decision Systems Course 2023/2024

This is the first project for students enrolled in the Decision System 2023/2024 course at the Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics at the University of Warsaw.


The goal of this competition is to construct a scoring model for predicting winners in the Hearthstone video game (https://hearthstone.blizzard.com/). 

More detailed competition rules are given in Terms and Conditions.

The description of the data and evaluation metric is in the Task description section. 

The deadline for sending submissions and scores is December 22, 2023.

Terms & Conditions
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Rank Team Name Is Report Preliminary Score Final Score Submissions
True 0.7941 0.793000 8
True 0.7942 0.792300 17
True 0.7936 0.792100 17
True 0.7932 0.791800 25
True 0.7930 0.791700 3
True 0.7929 0.791500 8
True 0.7921 0.791500 8
True 0.7921 0.790300 24
True 0.7891 0.787700 13
True 0.7864 0.786100 14
True 0.7836 0.781400 5
True 0.7074 0.705000 10

Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft is a free-to-play online video game developed and published by Blizzard Entertainment. It is a turn-based collectible card game between two opponents, who use constructed decks of thirty cards along with a selected hero with a unique power. Players use mana points to cast spells or summon minions to attack the opponent, with the goal of reducing the opponent's health to zero. The task for participants is to construct a prediction model that can learn how to accurately evaluate particular intra-game states and guess the winner of the game.

Data description and format: The data sets for this challenge are provided in a simple tabular format, where each row corresponds to a different game state. Columns of the data tables correspond to the most important aggregations of information extracted from game states, e.g. a sum of the maximal HP of the minions played by the first player, the total mana cost of the minions played by the opponent, or a number of spell cards in the hand of the first player. It is allowed to use external knowledge bases about Hearthstone cards as long as they are publically available and their source is clearly stated in the submitted solution description. One example of such a source is the HearthPwn portal.

The first column of tabular data is the gamestate_id. The second column, i.e., the decision is the result of the game from which a given game state was extracted. The decision in the data is ‘1’ if the first player won the game and ‘0’ otherwise. The remaining columns constitute a description of the game states. Their names are given in the data files and are self-explanatory. The test data is available in the same format as the training set, however, there is no information about the decisions. The corresponding column stores no values. This is the target for predictions. In total, the test data consists of 750,000 records. Please note that the training and test data sets contain game states from different playouts.

The format of submissions:Participants are asked to predict winners and send us their solutions using the submission system. Each solution should be sent in a single text file containing exactly 750,000 lines. In the consecutive lines, the file should contain exactly one real number between 0 and 1 indicating how likely it is that the first player wins the game.

Evaluation of results:The submitted solutions will be evaluated online and the preliminary results will be displayed on the public Leaderboard. The preliminary score will be computed on a small subset of the test set. It will correspond to approximately 5% of the test data. The final evaluation will be performed after completion of the challenge. It will be performed only for the indicated final solutions and it will be done using the remaining part of the test data. The assessment will be done using theArea Under ROC (AUC) measure.

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